Weather ensembles and live market data in, risk-aware dispatch out — a MILP planner for the optimal plan, a CVaR planner that prices the worst hour before it happens, recomputed every 15 minutes. Proven on real Dutch market data, built for Europe’s merchant era.
One optimisation core, rebuilt every settlement period, tuned to the physics of each asset and the volatility of Europe’s 15-minute imbalance markets.
Every 15 minutes Powerlys runs three planners and picks the best, so the system is optimal when it can be, and safe when it can't.
A mixed-integer optimiser finds the globally optimal dispatch across the portfolio, given the forecast and every physical constraint, ramp limits, state-of-charge, cycle budgets.
An explicit risk dial aggressive, balanced, or conservative that prices the worst 5% of outcomes directly. Risk committees and lenders read it natively; a black box doesn't.
A transparent rule-based planner as the safety floor, so there is always a sound decision even when data or models are degraded.
Operators settle imbalance every 15 minutes against prices that can swing by thousands of euros per MWh within a single day. Optimising the average outcome leaves the tail unmanaged and the tail is where portfolios bleed.
The method paper behind this section: the CVaR planner, its Rockafellar–Uryasev linearisation, and how it sits alongside the expected-value MILP and the rule-based fallback across four asset topologies. The evidence has two legs: a controlled simulation experiment that shows how the method behaves, and a 79-day backtest on real Dutch day-ahead and TenneT imbalance settlement prices, in which the expected-value planner’s +14.0% revenue uplift reproduced — and the simulation’s imbalance-cost separation did not. What the tail insurance is worth in volatile windows is what pilots settle.
Read the preprint on SSRNThe planner is only as good as what it sees. Powerlys feeds it a full spread of futures, not one point forecast.
A full weather ensemble captures the range of what wind and irradiance could do. This is the raw material for honest risk, not false precision.
Each weather member is converted to power through the asset's own physics and turbine curves, panel geometry not a fitted black box.
Generation and price scenarios feed the CVaR planner directly, so the dispatch decision already accounts for the spread of outcomes.
The same optimisation core handles every asset shape natively and no bolt-on models, no per-asset rewrites.
Irradiance-driven generation with curtailment and inverter limits.
Turbine power curves with ramping and availability constraints.
Co-located generation plus storage, co-optimised as one asset.
State-of-charge, cycle budgets and degradation priced into every cycle.
Where the engine is on the path from prototype to production, stated honestly.
MILP + CVaR planner and forecast front-end implemented across four topologies.
Running on real Dutch market data with TenneT imbalance, ENTSO-E day-ahead, weather feeds.
Results to date are backtests on real market data, documented in the CVaR whitepaper.
Pilot conversations with Dutch operators are underway — no-cost, on their own data. The next step from shadow to live.
The Dutch SDE++ era is giving way to merchant exposure — support already stops during negative-price hours, and new capacity increasingly runs fully merchant — so dispatch quality lands straight on the P&L.
Grid congestion and a volatile imbalance market are pulling utility-scale batteries onto the Dutch grid at record pace — and batteries are where dispatch value and tail risk concentrate.
Negative-price hours and intraday spreads keep setting records. Every trend widens exactly the gap our tail-risk engine is built to close.
Powerlys is TRL 6 today, running on real market data in shadow mode across four asset topologies. Results to date are backtests on real market data (validated on the Dutch market, the strictest 15-minute imbalance regime in Europe); live pilots with operators — in the Netherlands first, then the wider EU — are the next step. We are an EIC Accelerator applicant; our European base is being established in Tallinn, Estonia.
We run a no-cost pilot on your data. You keep everything, clean exit and show the dispatch value first-hand.
Book a demo